Economic Data Science Theme researcher, Andrea Baronchelli, said that more research on the topic of crypto code / price correlation may be on the horizon following the recent release of her team’s preprint report.
“This is really the first step,” Baronchelli said of the recent preprint report, titled, From code to market: Network of developers and correlated returns of cryptocurrencies. “We plan to look at what happens when multiple developers work on the same two projects, and at the semantics of the edits they make,” he noted, adding:
“Our analysis has concerned pairs of cryptos so far but we plan to explore whether there are more general network effects that affect simultaneously the market behavior of larger groups of cryptos.”
In its preprint released last week, the team found a connection between crypto asset prices and the developers who worked on the code for those assets.
Cryptocurrencies, by nature, hold a reputation as separate entities. The report, however, found that asset prices may act in a certain way based on the developers behind them.
The mainstream crypto audience understands the phrase “code is law” to mean a lack of correlation between assets due to their differing underpinnings. This was the starting point of the team’s research.
Coming into the study, however, Baronchelli said the group had already become aware of the impact collaboration networks have on a large number of fields, spanning the open source dimension, as well as the broader science world in general.
Using GitHub, Baronchelli said the team looked into which assets individual developers had worked on, noting any overlap. The study uncovered that 4% of developers contributed to the codebase of multiple crypto assets.
From there, the group hypothesized an effect on each asset’s price, resulting from such underlying asset correlations. “The data showed we were right,” Baronchelli said. “After a link is created between codes, the returns of the corresponding cryptos start correlating, on average.”
Over the past several years, altcoins have often moved up in price together, garnering the coining of the term “altseason.” At other times, certain crypto assets historically have moved together in smaller bunches. This added research from Baronchelli and the team may lead to an underlying explanation of this price activity, beyond the simply being herd mentality at work.