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Bitcoin’s Price Continue to Drop, Analysts Run Wild!

Bitcoin prices has fallen sharply recently from $7,700 to below $6,800—an almost 12% drop— hitting a six-month low.

Data from Rekto shows that derivatives exchange BitMEX saw more than $388 million worth of XBT Perpetual Swap contracts liquidated over the past 24 hours, which means that the exchange system has automatically closed a large number of bitcoin levered positions. By publication time, Bitcoin prices have clawed their way back above $7,000.
According to a market brief, BiMEX Open Interest (OI) has dropped below $700 million following rapid liquidations—an indicator of positioning extremes. The exchange is likely to observe a negative funding rate while futures remain in contango, the brief says.
Although it is possible for Bitcoin to approach the $6,000 level by year-end, the brief adds, right now it is more bullish than bearish. QCP also believes that Chinese retail traders will likely buy on dips if Bitcoin’s prices fell below $7,000.

Predictions and Analysis

In June, when Bitcoin was soaring above $10,000, nearly every trader and their mother expected the cryptocurrency to continue rocketing higher. Indeed, at the time, the asset was poised to take on its previous all-time high while emotions were riding high — a perfect combination for the price to go vertical.

Though, one analyst incessantly called for rationality to return to the crypto markets, claiming that this surge above $10,000 was a clear overextension of BTC’s long-term growth curve. He went as far as to say that Bitcoin was poised to return to $6,700. Of course, the analyst was laughed at, calling the prediction “irrational” and “FUD.”

On Nov. 22, however, the analyst, “Dave the Wave,” was proven right; for on this date, Bitcoin fell from $8,000 to $6,700, validating a call he made over five months earlier, which he stuck by despite the now-infamous 42 percent surge seen late last month.

The Future of Bitcoin

According to a recent Twitter thread from Dave the Wave, Bitcoin is likely to enter a phase of consolidation after tapping and cleanly bouncing off the $6,700 level.

 

The chart he posted, implies the cryptocurrency will undergo effectively flat price action into mid-December,  then will break out towards $10,000 as the year—and the decade—ends.

Although Dave strongly believes the bottom of the bear trend was put in at $6,700, other analysts are open to the possibility that the market will drop further from here, despite the bullish confluence mentioned above.

Bitcoin’s Expectations

As to why he is expecting for Bitcoin’s bleeding to stop at $6,700, Dave looked to a confluence of factors:

  1. the three-year moving average—which currently sits in the low-$6,000s—is where BTC historically has found support in early bull markets;
  2. the weekly Gaussian channel indicator is bullish, and the channel’s midpoint sits at $6,600;
  3. the cryptocurrency has bounced off the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement level of the $3,200 to $13,800 range, implying bottoming price action.

In spite of this short-term bearishness, analysts and investors alike widely anticipate Bitcoin’s upcoming mining rewards halving — which is slated to occur in May of 2020 — to catalyze a massive bullish movement similar to ones seen in years past.

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Crypto Stats


CryptoCurrencyUSDChange 1hChange 24hChange 7d
Bitcoin55,440 0.59 % 0.42 % 12.80 %
Ethereum2,295.2 0.56 % 6.64 % 0.40 %
Binance Coin588.31 0.61 % 17.38 % 6.36 %
Tether0.9994 0.09 % 0.54 % 0.18 %
Polkadot43.88 0.58 % 0.43 % 36.39 %
Cardano1.270 1.18 % 6.64 % 10.67 %
XRP1.380 0.83 % 8.19 % 22.97 %
Uniswap32.19 2.70 % 8.06 % 9.32 %
Litecoin260.98 1.01 % 3.88 % 1.99 %
Chainlink37.43 0.67 % 4.32 % 4.97 %