10-day realized volatility hits its lowest since just before Bitcoin price fell to $3,100 in late 2018, sparking fresh bearish fears.
Bitcoin (BTC) could be heading for a repeat of its late 2018 sell-off, data warns as realized volatility reaches almost three-year highs.
Uploading fresh charts on July 6, on-chain analyst Skew drew concerning comparisons to Bitcoin in its 2018 bear market.
Analyzing realized volatility, Skew noted that the last time the metric hit 20%, a mass capitulation event followed, during which BTC/USD hit $3,100.
“Last time we reached that level, we had the great sell-off of November 2018 shortly after,” analysts warned.
Realized volatility refers to historical volatility measurements, with 20% on the 10-day reading marking a 33-month low.
As it was reported last week, the lack of volatility has come hand in hand with declining volumes in Bitcoin, which analysts already believe will soon spark a “big move” up or down.
BTC/USD is repeatedly testing $9,000 support, while attention is focusing on defending $8,600 to avoid a larger drop.
While Bitcoin looks shaky, the opposite is true for gold, with commentators eagerly anticipating a bullish breakout.
With stocks booming but uncertainty remaining about long-term sustainability, gold is challenging its all-time highs from 2011.
For Bitcoin skeptic gold bug Peter Schiff, the investment choice was obvious once again as the week began.
“Gold seems to be chipping away at resistance just below $1,800 while Bitcoin is simultaneously chipping away at support just above $9,000,” he wrote as part of a Twitter survey on Sunday.
Respondents appeared to disagree, with almost 50% of the 9,800 participants forecasting both gold and Bitcoin to continue climbing.